THE NEXT WAR OF LIBERATION

The Next Korean War (James Woolsey & Thomas McInerny, OpinionJournal, 8/4/2003)

In early July, krypton 85 was detected in locations that suggested that this gas, produced when spent nuclear fuel is reprocessed into plutonium for nuclear weapons, may have emanated from a site other than North Korea's known reprocessing facility at Yongbyon....

[S]everal additional bombs' worth of plutonium could be available a few months from now. Add this to Pyongyang's breach of the 1994 Agreed Framework by its secret uranium-enrichment program, and its boast in April that it would sell weapons-grade plutonium to whomever it pleased (rogue states? terrorist groups?), and it is apparent that the world has weeks to months, at most, to deal with this issue ...

The only chance for a peaceful resolution of this crisis before North Korea moves clearly into the ranks of nuclear powers is for China to move decisively....

It is not reasonable to limit the use of force to a surgical strike destroying Yongbyon....

Massive air power is the key ... The key point is that the base infrastructure available in the region and the accessibility of North Korea from the sea should make it possible to generate around 4,000 sorties a day compared to the 800 a day that were so effective in Iraq....

The South Korean Army is well equipped to handle a counteroffensive into North Korea with help from perhaps two additional U.S. Army divisions, together with the above-mentioned Marine Expeditionary Force and dominant air power. We judge that the U.S. and South Korea could defeat North Korea decisively in 30 to 60 days with such a strategy. Importantly, there is "no doubt on the outcome" as the chairman of the JCS, Gen. Meyers, said at his reconfirmation hearing on July 26 to the Senate.

Diplomacy will go nowhere unless backed by a credible threat of war. So I've long thought we'll know the Bush administration is serious about North Korea when we start to see figures close to the administration making the case for war in the media. Expect this to be the first of many such essays.

Of course, war is in the U.S. interest: it would remove the North Korean threat, take away China's option for secretive hostile action through a proxy state, liberate 23 million North Koreans, and re-unify Korea. The risks of war would fall on South Korea and, to a lesser extent, Japan, while the cost of losing its ally would fall on China. Thus, the buildup to war, especially the obtaining of Congressional authorization, might well motivate China and other regional powers to pressure North Korea into line. That sort of diplomatic triumph is just what George Bush would like in summer 2004.

But there is much work to be done to prepare the public for war.

Posted by Paul Jaminet at August 4, 2003 9:27 AM