THE IVORY SOAP TEST

An Actor, Yes, but No Ronald Reagan (DEAN E. MURPHY, August 10, 2003, NY Times)

State party officials said Mr. Schwarzenegger's bid to replace Governor Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has had the instant effect of drawing star-struck volunteers to the party's doorstep. Mr. Schwarzenegger also got a favorable nod on Friday from President Bush, who said, "I think he'd be a good governor."

But conservatives like Lyn Nofziger, who worked for both Governor Reagan and President Reagan, approach Mr. Schwarzenegger with a certain level of suspicion about his Republican credentials.

"I think he faces a real difficult task," Mr. Nofziger said. "He still has to convince at least half of his party, and probably more than that, that he is the kind of leader that they want to follow."

The problem for Mr. Schwarzenegger is that he is perceived as a moderate in a party that still largely sees Ronald Reagan and his conservative revolution as its raison d'?tre. Mr. Schwarzenegger has expressed support for abortion rights, gay rights and some gun control. He is considered by many on the right as soft on immigration. During the impeachment of President Clinton, he was quoted as saying he was embarrassed to be a Republican. Last fall, he took a beating on conservative talk-radio shows for leading a ballot initiative that expanded state financing of after-school programs.

Conservatives point out that Mr. Schwarzenegger's vehicle for entering the state's political sweepstakes - the recall against Mr. Davis - was a grass-roots uprising among ordinary conservatives, made viable by the bank account of a millionaire conservative, Representative Darrell Issa of San Diego, who differs with many of Mr. Schwarzenegger's views. (Mr. Issa dropped out of the race on Thursday.)

"If he gets elected, and the recall is a convenient adjunct to his candidacy, then it is not going to work," said Mr. Khachigian, who was advising Mr. Issa. "He has to realize that this is a true rebellion. It is a Republican and conservative rebellion."

Mr. Schwarzenegger also steps into the political ring with virtually none of the preparation of Mr. Reagan.

When Mr. Reagan ran for governor in 1966, he had not only been a well-known actor, the host of a popular Sunday television show and a dashing figure around Los Angeles, but a visible Republican activist across the country.

Lou Cannon, whose new book, Governor Reagan: His Rise to Power, will be published next month, said Mr. Reagan's entry into elective politics was a foregone conclusion after the defeat of the Republican presidential nominee Barry M. Goldwater in 1964. As early as the 1950's, Mr. Cannon said, Mr. Reagan had been approached about running for Congress.

"After Goldwater got walloped, there weren't a lot of Republicans on the scene," Mr. Cannon said. "The only real question Reagan himself had was what office to run for, whether it should be governor. Reagan's focus had been on national issues."

Mr. Schwarzenegger would do well to support limitations on abortion, a ban on gay marriage, and no more gun control than is already in place. That would likely be enough to placate most conservatives, so long as he runs on cutting CA's bloated spending and holding the line on taxes. But conservatives are going to have to adjust to him more than he to they if there's going to be a Republican governor of California. Conservatives had their ideal candidate in Bill Simon, and he lost to Gray Davis. Now it's time to compromise and see if they can beat him with someone more libertarian than they might prefer.

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Democrats Add to Chaos in Bid to Foil Recall (ADAM NAGOURNEY, August 9, 2003, NY Times)

In an atmosphere that hovered between carnival and chaos, Democratic leaders here today quarreled over how best to beat back the drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis.

Some Democrats, embodying the contortions their party is going through, said they were prepared to keep fighting the recall while still endorsing a Democrat to replace Mr. Davis.

His aides, along with some state and national Democratic leaders, insisted that the party should focus all its efforts on persuading Californians to reject the recall. They argued that endorsing another Democrat would amount to a vote of no confidence in Mr. Davis and further undercut his tenuous hold on power.

But the 33 members of state's Democratic Congressional delegation, led by Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, were said tonight to be likely to reject that argument in favor of a two-pronged strategy: to oppose the ouster of Mr. Davis while endorsing Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante to replace him.

And several other Democrats, in a clear sign of dwindling confidence in Mr. Davis's position, said they were prepared to follow that lead in an effort to try to block Republicans from gaining the governorship of the most populous state the year before a presidential election.

And it's certainly worth compromising, from a conservative standpoint, just because losing California would be so psychologically devastating for Democrats as they head into an election year. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 9, 2003 11:07 AM