THE DILEMMA OF THE CENTRIST DEMOCRAT

Graham would lose Florida to president (AP, Aug. 6, 2003)

U.S. Sen. Bob Graham's campaign tactics in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination appears to be hurting him at home with voters.

His criticism of President George W. Bush's position on the Iraqi war has driven Graham's approval rating in Florida to a record low 47 percent, a new poll shows. A former two-term governor, Graham has enjoyed approval ratings consistently over 60 percent in the past 20 years.

The 66-year-old senator is campaigning nationally on his contention that he can defeat Bush for the state's 27 electoral votes, a state that decided the presidency in 2000.

But the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. for several Florida newspapers and broadcasters, shows Bush would defeat Graham in his home state by a margin of 12 percentage points, 51 percent to 39 percent, if the election were held now.

This is why it's so risky for centrist Democrats to run for President: the folks who sent you to office in the first place aren't anything like the folks you're pandering to in a Democratic presidential primary. When you come back home, with your tail between your legs, they may not be too forgiving. It's this dynamic that makes one think that neither Senator Graham nor Edwards are planning to run for re-election--it's up or out. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 6, 2003 6:05 PM