THE 14% SOLUTION

Younger Blacks Tell Democrats to Take Notice (LYNETTE CLEMETSON, 8/08/03, NY Times)

In 2000, 74 percent of African-Americans identified themselves as Democrats. By last year, that number had dropped to 63 percent, according to a recent survey by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a research group devoted to African-American issues.

Those shifting away from the Democratic Party are not necessarily becoming Republicans. An overwhelming majority of blacks still vote Democratic. But an increasing number, especially those 18 to 35, are identifying themselves as independents. Some 24 percent of black adults now characterize themselves that way. Among those 35 and under, said David Bositis, a senior researcher at the Joint Center who conducted the survey, the figures are 30 percent to 35 percent, with men leaning more heavily independent than women.

For Democrats, the downside of weaker partisan ties is twofold. Unlike older blacks, many of whom vote consistently because they remember a time when they could not, younger blacks are more prone to sit out an election if no candidate grabs their interest. And even if they are not registered Republicans, younger blacks are more open to supporting Republican candidates and issues than older blacks. Sylvester Smith, 27, whose mother was a Democratic state legislator in Arkansas, is a policy adviser for minority affairs for Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, a Republican. [...]

The move by younger African-Americans away from strong partisan affiliation mirrors that of younger whites. But Mr. Bositis and others studying the issue argue that the shift in African-American behavior is more damaging for the Democratic Party because of its heavy dependence on black voters.

Cornell Belcher, a pollster who specializes in minority and youth constituencies, contends the message in the trends is clear. "This group really should be considered swing voters to be targeted specifically," he said. "But if you look at or listen to the typical political ads aimed at black voters, there is a huge disconnect with younger blacks."

When Michael L. Steele, a black Republican, ran for lieutenant governor of Maryland with Robert L. Erlich Jr. in 2002, he hired a consultant to design radio advertisements specifically for the state's major hip-hop radio stations. Tapping into frustration among black voters over the fact that Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the Democratic candidate for governor, had chosen a white running mate, the radio spots used tag lines like, "Why must African-Americans always wait?"

Mr. Erlich and Mr. Steele won the election, ending a 36-year Democratic hold on the Statehouse. The team not only swung traditionally Democratic white voters, it also received 14 percent of the black vote, the largest percentage of African-American votes ever for a Republican ticket in Maryland. In Baltimore, one of the areas deluged with the hip-hop radio spots, the ticket won 30 percent of the black vote.

"Republicans took a pass on the civil rights agenda in the late 50's and early 60's, and it cost us," Mr. Steele, 44, said. "This is a door that has opened, and we can't let this pass." The Republican Party is pushing a series of political training seminars to groom nonwhite candidates.

That's how vital the black vote is to Democrats in many states--just 14% can hand the GOP victory. That the Party has so much repair work to do with its various constituencies, but especially with blacks, suggests a coming election where they never get to the broader issues because they're debating internal Democratic politics. Compounding the problem, neither Howard Dean nor John Kerry has any natural connection to black communities and leaders in the way that the Southerner Bill Clinton did. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 8, 2003 12:22 PM