SAYONARA

Falling savings rate is a warning (The Japan Times, Aug. 23, 2003)

Until not long ago Japan was criticized -- or praised -- for its extraordinarily high savings rate, depending on how one looked at it. The United States, for one, pointed out that Japan was saving too much and investing too little, and called for steps to stimulate domestic demand and boost consumer spending. How times change. Japan is no longer a nation of overeager savers.

Statistics show that more and more Japanese households are dipping into their savings to cover living expenses. Reduced income and extended unemployment are some of the immediate reasons. A private study predicts that the savings rate will amount to almost nothing by the late 2010s if it continues to fall at the current pace. [...]

The falling savings rate is also an ominous sign for the debt-ridden central and local governments. Currently the money to buy public bonds originates mostly from people's savings. If savings continue to dwindle, more money will have to be borrowed from abroad. Japan is still the world's largest creditor, but it is also the most heavily indebted of industrialized nations. If the debt keeps on expanding as fast as it does now, the nation's international credit standing will eventually suffer a serious blow.

There is already a real possibility that should investors lose confidence in government bonds, interest rates would begin to soar, putting a heavy drag on the economy. Indeed, the day of reckoning may well come in the not so distant future if government debt continues to rise rapidly in parallel with a chronic decline in the savings rate.

Halting the rising suicide trend (The Japan Times, Aug. 18, 2003)

The number of suicides in Japan last year exceeded 30,000 for the fifth consecutive year. That's more than three times the number of deaths from traffic accidents. The high incidence of suicide is attributed mainly to the prolonged economic slump. This situation demands efforts in various fields to implement specific preventive measures, including improvements in mental health care.

The annual number of suicides in Japan used to average about 20,000. In 1998, though, the figure began soaring past 30,000. It remained nearly level for a while and then rose further last year for the first time in three years. Now suicide ranks as the sixth leading cause of death among Japanese people. For people in their 20s and 30s, it is the leading cause of death.

Another characteristic of the current trend is that suicide is increasing among middle-aged men. According to statistics compiled by the National Police Agency, the number of suicides motivated by economic difficulty rose to a record high 8,000 people last year. Background factors included unemployment, restructuring and debts.

In addition to those who commit suicide, there are about 10 times more people who attempt suicide.

Add in a fertility rate of 1.3 births per woman and you've got a canary warning that the coal mine is unsafe. Remarkably, it wasn't long ago that folks were either terrified of a resurgent Japan or wanted us to be more like them. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 23, 2003 9:08 AM