NUMEROLOGY

EWN Exclusive Recall Election Poll (ABC7.com, 8/27/03)

The candidates vying to be California's next Governor have only been campaigning for a few weeks, but we've already seen front runners lose their lead in the polls - only to move back up again.

An exclusive Eyewitness News poll conducted by Survey USA, shows Arnold Schwarzenegger has a wide lead again, with support of 45-percent of registered voters. Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante has 29-percent.

Our exclusive survey could come as a surprise to some. It only counts registered voters who say they will cast a ballot October 7. The poll is based on 591 California residents who say they are certain to vote Oct. 7.

Though the Republican vote is splintered Arnold Schwarzenegger would win office today even though Cruz Bustamante is winning endorsements.

The numbers are reversing since August 11th survey.

Tom McClintock and Peter Uberroth top the rest of the field and the survey could give Governor Gray Davis some concern. If the recall election were today, he would be ousted by 64-percent of the vote with only a 35-percent vote of confidence.

There was an LA Times poll over the weekend that had Bustamante ahead, but the numbers were ridiculous and it was contradicted by internal polling, including that of Bill Simon, which had led to him conceding he couldn't beat Arnold Schwarzenegger and getting out of the race. The thing about this poll is that it has Mr. Schwarzenegger just slightly ahead of what Mr. Simon finished with in 2002 (45% to Mr. Simon's 42%). This would seem to be a realistic number, though it may well be the highwater mark--45% to 47% may be about as well as any Republican can do in CA at this point. Though, you'd have to think that if Tom McClintock gets out of the race and endorses and campaigns for Arnold, that could put him in at least striking distance of 50%.

Given the Democratic nature of the electorate it's hard to do other than make Cruz Bustamante the favorite, but it's a very winnable race for Arnold. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 27, 2003 8:40 PM