IF DAN WALTERS CAN'T FIGURE IT OUT THEN NO ONE CAN

Recall dynamics changing daily in an unprecedented drama (Dan Walters, August 22, 2003, Sacramento Bee)

[N]othing about this historic recall drive is engraved into stone, not even the election date. What's true one day may be untrue the next, simply because another 24 hours have passed. And the evolutionary changes are nearly impossible to predict because no one has wandered down this particular political path before and all electoral models are inapplicable.

The following observations, are, therefore, merely snapshots that could be completely invalidated by the intervention of still another unforeseen factor. With that caveat, here's where we stand after a week of major moves by principal figures:

--Schwarzenegger's critical need is for Bill Simon, last year's GOP challenger to Davis, to decide that with only a few points of voter support (4 percent in the latest poll), he'd be foolish to continue wasting his money and that he should throw his support to the leading Republican. If Simon continues to the end, he and state Sen. Tom McClintock could siphon off enough conservative votes to thwart Schwarzenegger. [...]

--If it does become a two-person contest, the critical number to win is probably about 40 percent, given that the other 133 candidates will naturally soak up a substantial number of votes, albeit a few at a time. Bustamante, with little ability to garner Republican support, may need 90 percent of the Democratic votes to hit 40 percent. Schwarzenegger might need just 70 percent of Republicans if he can continue to make inroads with independents and Democrats. The two are roughly tied now at around 25 percent each, so the ability to claim moderate voters will be crucial to both.

Here's the mystifying thing: if Bill Simon does cost Arnold the election, it will mean he squandered two decent GOP shots at the CA governorship, yet the knuckleheads who refer to certain people as RINO's (Republican in Name Only) would rather that happen than accept a candidate who's at all less conservative than they are. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 22, 2003 10:34 AM