A TAD TOO MACHIAVELL

Schwarzenegger Outcome Could Affect Bush in 2004: Gubernatorial Win in California Would Bring Potential Risks as Well as Rewards, Strategists Say (Dana Milbank and Mike Allen, August 14, 2003, Washington Post)

The White House finds itself in the awkward position of playing spectator in a race that could alter Bush's political future. Though Rove cares so much about California that an associate calls the state "Karl's Ahab," the recall was driven by people at odds with the administration, such as Shawn Steel, who was pushed out by Bush allies as state Republican Party chairman. "It changes the fortune for the presidential campaign dramatically if we win," Steel said. [...]

Still, Schwarzenegger's decision to join the race, and early polls showing broad support, has buoyed the Bush campaign's hopes of a lift in 2004. "Schwarzenegger is the only candidate who has a chance to achieve what we wanted," one adviser said, adding that the two leading conservatives in the race, businessman Bill Simon and state Sen. Tom McClintock, have too much of a "hard edge" to add to Bush's appeal in the state.

Don't expect Bush to say that publicly, however. Bush aides believe that appearing to meddle would backfire and boost Democrats' efforts to link the California recall to the 2000 Florida recount. Still, California Republicans say, lawmakers and others tied to the White House have been putting what one called "heavy pressure" on Simon and McClintock to drop out -- and one GOP strategist close to the White House expects one or both to quit.

The eventual decisions of Simon and McClintock will give the surest indication of what the White House is really up to. If they bow out it will be as much because of Karl Rove and the President as because of any offer from the Schwarzenegger camp. Best case scenario for all involved would be for McClintock to be offered a big time job in the coming Schwarzenegger administration and Simon to get both Arnold and the White House's backing for a senate race against Barbara Boxer. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 14, 2003 10:02 AM