60-40 VISION

Narrow Majorities, But Huge Advantages For The GOP (Charlie Cook, Aug. 5, 2003, NationalJournal.com)

In politics, numbers can often be deceiving. Despite the fact the Senate is almost evenly split, 51 Republicans to 49 Democrats, few believe -- correctly or not -- that there is much chance the GOP will lose its majority next November. In the House, which is divided almost as evenly (229 Republicans to 206 Democrats, or 52.6 percent to 47.4 percent), Democrats are no closer to recapturing the majority than are their Senate brethren. And, despite the fact that the margin between the two parties in the House is closer than it was at any point during the 40-year Democratic reign, Republicans enjoyed an operational ruling majority even before their six-seat pickup in 2002.

In the Senate, once you get past the 51-49 split, both the numbers and the circumstances begin to work against Democrats. Not only do Democrats have more seats up than Republicans, but these 19 Democratic seats are far more vulnerable than the GOP 15. Of the Democratic seats, 10 are in states that George W. Bush carried in that razor-thin 2002 election, while only three of the 15 Republican seats are in states won by Al Gore. History tells us that presidential election returns are a very good, though admittedly not perfect, proxy for later Senate results, particularly in open seats where most turnovers occur.

Announced or prospective retirements by Ernest Hollings (SC), John Breaux (LA), John Edwards (NC), Bob Graham (FL), and possibly even Tom Daschle (SD) make a 60-seat Republican majority more likely than a 49-seat minority. The GOP has not been this dominant in Congress since the '20s. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 6, 2003 8:16 AM