TIME TO PACK IT IN

Democratic Candidates Are Still Caught in a Pack (Ronald Brownstein, July 2, 2003, LA Times)

The midyear financial results trickling in this week are solidifying a sense among party insiders that Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean have moved into the strongest positions, with Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri hanging onto the edge of the top tier.

Yet all three face major hurdles as they try to increase their support. And the obstacles looming before Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bob Graham of Florida now look to many even more imposing.

Assuming, which we needn't, that Gephardt wins IA again, it's a two man race after NH, with the winner of the Dean vs. Kerry sweepstakes moving on to battle it out with Gephardt and the loser closing up shop. But then neither Mr. Gephardt nor the Dean/Kerry victor would seem to have much natural appeal in the rest of the country and it could easily turn into a Bataan death march to the convention, a race characterized by attrition and wasting more than anything else. Meanwhile, if Gephardt loses IA he's out of the race, just by virtue of losing the expectations game, and the winner of NH will face no one but Al Sharpton, who may therefore actually win some primaries later in the year, as Jesse Jackson won a few in '88--combining blacks, progressives and voters merely wishing to protest the inevitable Party nominee. Any way you slice it, the prospects are simply gruesome for the Democratic Party. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 3, 2003 1:43 PM