THEY SAID THE WHIGS WERE SELF-DESTRUCTING TOO...

Don't Stop Thinkin' About... A Landslide? (Chuck Todd, July 9, 2003, NationalJournal.com)

It's not just Howard Dean that worries Democratic elders. It's the fundamental problems the party has down the ballot in so many states. [...]

* California Recall: The party has a real chance of losing its grip on the governor's seat. The signatures are in, and the recall election looks like a go. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis is the least popular chief executive of any state in the nation. If the job falls into GOP hands, the president's party would then control all four governorships in the country's four largest electoral prizes. But while Davis' problems can be explained away on a micro level, it would sting the Democratic Party nationally to see one of its elected officials booted out of office. It's just not a morale booster. Of course, there is the "be careful what you wish for" argument -- why on Earth anyone would want to try and govern California at this point is beyond us. (And if the governor ends up being Arnold Schwarzenegger, we say, "Good luck." If you thought Jesse Ventura was in over his head, you ain't see nothing yet.)

* Texas Redistricting: As it stands now, the GOP's grip on the U.S. House is fairly firm, though a strong wind at the Democrats' back could be enough to get the minority party back in power. But that assumes House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas isn't able to gerrymander a new map out of his home state. We think it's a bit silly that Texas, a very Republican state, has a 17-15 Democratic congressional delegation advantage. It doesn't compute. Rules are rules, but the rules in Texas are made to be changed. When the GOP saw success in 2002 state legislative races, the GOP seized its chance at righting what DeLay viewed was an original wrong. Despite the Democrats' previous high-profile attempt to kill this power grab (the trip to Oklahoma), it seems less likely the Democrats will be able to stop DeLay this time. A four-seat swing is very possible, making the Democratic hopes for retaking the House tougher in not just this election cycle, but for the rest of the decade. These types of outlooks are what make House members (such as Democrat Joe Hoeffel in Pennsylvania) seek shelter in an uphill statewide race rather than an even steeper race for House control.

* Southern Senate Retirements: There's a very real possibility that Democrats will be defending as many as five open seats in the South. Georgia is already open with Zell Miller retiring. Florida and North Carolina are likely to be open regardless if Bob Graham or John Edwards makes it to Boston as the White House nominee. South Carolina (Fritz Hollings) and Louisiana (John Breaux) both host senators who are openly considering retirement. And Bush carried all five states in 2000. Translation: Every one of these races is going to be tough, so to expect Democrats to hold all of them is an incredibly tall order. Holding three of the five would be considered a moral victory. The bigger message out of these retirements (if they all happen) is the message it sends to the party donors and activists nationally -- these guys don't see themselves in the majority anytime soon. The retirements could be a cause of keeping a good Democratic recruit in another state (Dan Glickman in Kansas, for instance) from running.

* Not-So-Loveable Rogues: Finally, the party is finding itself in the unenviable position of being home to some not-so-popular statewide candidates in states where they could be responsible for other electoral losses. In Kentucky's gubernatorial contest, term-limited Gov. Paul Patton's public affair will be the sole excuse (and we think it's legitimate) if Ben Chandler loses the Democrats' once-solid grip on the governor's mansion. In West Virginia -- one of the states Democrats desperately need back in their presidential column -- the party's leading 2004 candidate, Gov. Bob Wise, has his own personal problems that are being aired publicly. And in Ohio -- a state where Democrats should perform better but for some reason do not -- voters could be on the verge of seeing a Democratic ballot led by Jerry Springer. These may look like isolated problems for individuals, but imagine the 30-second TV spots the GOP could run in these states.... Perhaps morphing of the presidential nominee into any of these three embattled Democrats. Or tossing in a third morph of Clinton with Wise and Patton? We wouldn't be shocked if those ads were already cut.

Here's Bill Clinton's real legacy. A party that centered around only his mercurial personality has now taken it on. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 9, 2003 5:20 PM