THE DANGER OF A DYING BEAST

Japan Faces Burden: Its Own Defense (HOWARD W. FRENCH, 7/22/03, NY Times)

Not long ago, Nisohachi Hyodo, the author of a four-year plan for nuclear armament of Japan, was part of the lunatic fringe, his ideas so far from the pacifist mainstream that he was published only in obscure journals.

These days, though, he has his own program on a major Tokyo radio station and is a popular speaker on college campuses. With everyone from the academic establishment to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi advocating that Japan become more assertive militarily, Mr. Hyodo scarcely stands out.

More than a half-century after two atomic blasts forced Japan's surrender in World War II, talk of acquiring nuclear weapons--long one of the country's most sacred taboos--is but one illustration of how Japan is grappling openly with the challenge of becoming what is known here as a "normal nation," one armed and able to fight wars.

By no means do all Japanese support nuclear armament. But the world has changed since Japan accepted a Constitution, written by the United States during its postwar occupation, that renounces war as a tool of diplomacy. The question now is, can Japan change too?

The country's 13-year economic slump is pushing forward a host of issues--immigration, the role of women, a steep decline in population--that are testing whether this tradition-bound society will adapt or face inevitable decline.

Many are willing to accept the Death of the West because they assume it will at least be peaceful, but given that the weakening states like Japan and those in Europe will be increasingly easy prey for hostile powers and will have "native" populations threatened by growing immigrant populations, it is far more likely to be a deadly passing. Given the historic hatreds of Japan in Asia it's easy enough to imagine an authoritarian China deciding to just attack them. Likewise, given Japanese population trends it is easy to imagine them becoming dependent on immigrant labor, while given their racialism, it's easy to imagine them one day deciding to "deal with" those immigrants when they face the prospect of becoming a minority in their own land. The latter prospect is even easier to foresee in places like France and Germany, which already have the immigrant populations, hate them, and have a history of adopting "final solutions" to such "problems". Posted by Orrin Judd at July 22, 2003 11:46 AM