PRAYING FOR A DEPRESSION

Appealing To A Disillusioned Base (Charlie Cook, July 8, 2003, NationalJournal.com)

The rub is that while a candidate like Dean can certainly score points by venting Democrats' frustration and contempt for Bush, these views bear little resemblance to those of the independent and other swing voters who, by and large, determine who wins and loses in general elections.

In those same two June Ipsos/Cook surveys, 55 percent of all independent registered voters approved of Bush's overall performance, while 25 percent strongly approved. Thirty-seven percent disapproved, but only 17 percent strongly disapproved.

On the economy and domestic issues, a somewhat stronger case can be made for more specific attacks. On the economy, 44 percent of independent voters approved and 12 percent strongly approved -- while 49 percent disapproved, and 29 percent strongly disapproved. On the handling of domestic issues, 48 percent approved and only 8 percent strongly approved; 45 percent disapproved, with 30 percent strongly disapproving.

On foreign policy, however, independents are generally supportive of Bush. Sixty percent of independents approved of Bush's performance and 38 percent strongly approved -- while 35 percent disapprove, with 21 percent strongly disapproving.

In short, exhibiting personal contempt and voicing broadside condemnations of Bush can generate considerable short-term enthusiasm within the Democratic Party, but it can easily be counterproductive among independent voters.

Okay, so you win the Democratic nomination by getting as far to the Left of the electorate as you can. You can even win some independents because the economy has had a slow growing couple of years. But what's left of your campaign by the end of next summer when the economy has picked up again? Oh yeah, about two-thirds of the Democratic vote and maybe a third of the independents. That should be good for about 42% of the vote in November 2004. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 8, 2003 1:54 PM