POLLING THE SHUT-INS

The seasonal trend of Bush's ratings (Tod Lindberg, 7/15/03, Washington Times)

It's remarkable, looking back, how much of a vacuum existed from late July through the end of August last summer, and how quickly it filled when the White House re-engaged after Labor Day. Now, if one wants to tune out in this fashion, one must accept what looks to be a difficult-to-avoid consequence: a drop in presidential job-approval ratings. In 2002, Mr. Bush's rating dropped significantly, especially in the period from late June to the end of August - in CBS News polls, from 70 percent to 61 percent. In 2003, we are also seeing an emerging decline, with Mr. Bush dropping from 68 percent to 59 percent in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. And in 2001, Mr. Bush came down as well, from 57 percent in the Gallup/USA Today/CNN poll down to 51 percent.

Now, in 2002, Mr. Bush had little trouble boosting his numbers in the fall (which in turn was important for Republicans in the November election). Conventional wisdom is that Mr. Bush was adrift in summer 2001 and that September 11 saved him. I would like to point out that that proposition hasn't really been tested. We don't know what Mr. Bush might have done in the absence of the September 11 attacks, and he had enjoyed approval ratings as high as 65 percent or so in April 2001.

Which, in turn, points us to another generalization. In each case, Mr. Bush's critics, as well as some neutral observers, have pointed to the summer declines as an indication that Mr. Bush's approval was dropping to a new, permanently lower level. In summer 2001, the drop was often attributed to a lack of administration focus after passing its big tax cut. In summer 2002, it was the supposedly mounting uncertainty about the administration's Iraq case finally taking the post-September 11 bounce out of Mr. Bush's numbers. In summer 2003, it's disenchantment with Iraq and the economy all over again.

Could be. But it could also be that the White House is leaving the field for the summer. We should know about that within a couple weeks. And by mid-September, we should know if the current decline indicates a genuine decrease in confidence in Mr. Bush or if it is simply a recurring seasonal effect.

At the end of last Summer, Andy Card stated that the White House understood this phenomenon with a bluntness that enraged the critics, saying that they were rolling out their Iraq War public relations campaign in September because: "From a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August." Posted by Orrin Judd at July 16, 2003 9:50 PM