ONLY IF THEY'RE ALLOWED TO

Hamas will now set the agenda (Robert Fulford, July 03, 2003, National Post)

As Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas pose side by side for the cameras, Hamas hovers unseen in the background, confident that it made this event possible and can easily bring it crashing to an end. By joining with lesser terrorists in a dubious and ill-defined truce, Hamas has put itself in a position to play a pivotal role in the politics of the near future. Without giving away anything serious, it has begun the long march from lunatic fringe to power broker. Any day now, some damn fool will call it "moderate," unless it decides not to be.

Its leaders are likely astonished that this first step was so simple. They merely signed on to a hudna, an Arabic word for truce or ceasefire that Israelis claim can be translated as "I need to pause for breath." Israelis are accustomed to sudden changes in their prospects but they understandably fear yet another hideously failed "peace process," so they have received the latest news with the skepticism it deserves. They enthusiastically welcome any pause in the killing, and realize that any road to peace is worth considering. But at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya the other day, Jonathan Fighel, a retired Israeli colonel and now a resident scholar, explained why he sees this latest development as just about the nicest thing that ever happened to Hamas.

It has agreed to stop sending suicide bombers to murder Israeli civilians, but only if Israel reciprocates appropriately. Israel must refrain from
assassinating Hamas leaders, close down some settlements in the occupied territories, and release some Palestinian criminals from jail. How many settlements must be dismantled, and how fast? How many prisoners must be set free?

That's for Hamas to say. It will judge Israel's performance and act accordingly. If it decides the Sharon government hasn't kept its part of the bargain, Hamas can reopen hostilities, without advance notice, by fitting up a few teenagers with suicide belts and sending them to Jaffa Street. And who imagines that Hamas will be satisfied for long? It has always been, as Israelis say, rejectionist. It doesn't want a better Israel, or a smaller Israel. It wants no Israel at all.

It's hard to believe that even as smart a columnist as Robert Fulford fails to see the cavernous hole in this logic. Hamas can return to terrorism but it has lost control of the agenda so long as the US, Israel and Palestinians who agree with Mahmoud Abbas keep moving inexorably toward statehood. The only way its actions take control of the agenda is if a resumption of violence by these extremists leads the other parties to change their long term behavior. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 5, 2003 5:55 PM