LEFTWARD DRAG

Candidates Face Different N.H. Landscape (HOLLY RAMER, July 3, 2003, Associated Press)

By the numbers, New Hampshire remains one of the country's wealthiest states, with a per capita income of $34,334, the sixth highest, according to the most recent figures released in 2002. There is no personal income tax or general sales tax, which makes it attractive to its growing population of 1.3 million.

In 2000, New Hampshire was like many states, enjoying the economic good times with a surge in high-paying, high-tech jobs and a low
unemployment rate of around 2 percent. Today, the unemployment rate is nowhere near the national figure of 6.1 percent, but it has increased to 3.9 percent.

Since 2000, the state has lost 20,000 manufacturing jobs. The fastest declining occupations are the blue-collar jobs of textile machine operators, shoe and leather workers and sewing machine operators -- a factor for Democratic candidates such as Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, whose strength is his appeal to the party's union voters.

Gephardt, who sought the party's nomination in 1988, drew most of his support in that year's primary from working-class voters. "His challenge is, assuming he's got the working class base, that base is shrinking," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown. [...]

After studying census data and patterns in the last three Democratic primaries, Scala recently concluded that Democrats who appeal to both working-class Democrats and the party's "liberal elite" are much more likely to eventually win the nomination than candidates who appeal mainly to one faction. He cites Gore, Bill Clinton, and Michael Dukakis as examples.

Because the NH GOP is so closely identified with the anti-tax position and because "progressives" grew so frustrated with the Clinton-esque Jeanne Shaheen, it's become sort of a Democrat badge of courage to advocate taxes here. All of the presidential candidates oppose President Bush's tax cuts to one degree or another but could get into a bidding war to see who will take more of them back. Hard to see how that helps in the general. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 3, 2003 9:35 AM