JOE VOTER

Bush a shoo-in for 2004? (DOUGLAS HARBRECHT, 7/07/03, BUSINESSWEEK)

As a young political reporter trying to plumb the dynamics of voter behavior, I did an interview 16 years ago with a regular Joe Voter from Ohio that has stayed with me ever since.

DURING THE COURSE of our chat, he wanted to know why the Iran-contra scandal was such a big deal inside the Beltway for then-President Ronald Reagan? I tried my best to explain: In secretly trading arms for hostages, the Reagan Administration had deliberately misled Congress and precipitated a Constituional crisis. But the puzzled listener just furrowed his brow: "Yeah, but Reagan is trying to do a good job," he blurted out. "Leave him alone."

That may not sound profound. But the more I followed politics over the years, the more I came to realize the man was posing the essential judgment most voters make in deciding whether to stick with their Commander-in-Chief. Not "Is he doing a good job?" mind you. "Is he trying to do a good job?" Ever since FDR, U.S. Presidents generally have enjoyed a deep reservoir of good will with the electorate -- even among those who didn't vote for them. Get on the wrong side of this question, however, and it's over. [...]

The average approval rating in the third year of every President's first term since Dwight Eisenhower has been 55 percent -- Bush's remain in the mid-60s. Almost two out of three voters are still sold on the notion that he's trying to do a good job.

We were actually pro-Iran-Contra, but the rest of the column suggests just how difficult it is too knock off an incumbent president who hasn't butchered the job. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 7, 2003 11:19 PM