INNOCENT BYSTANDERS

Dem blame game could prove costly (Robert Robb, Jul. 20, 2003, Arizona Republic)

Democrats have invested heavily in making this President Bush's economy.

According to Democratic legend, Bush inherited an economy in the best shape since the Flood, and he promptly wrecked it. [...]

The economy, however, has actually done OK since the end of the recession, growing at a 1.5 to 2.5 percent rate. Of course Bush hasn't wanted to argue that, given his father's experience.

Unemployment has risen, but household incomes have held steady. Over the past year, household net worth increased 4.5 percent.

From a political standpoint, projections for a fairly robust economic pickup between now and the next election are particularly interesting.

Democrats tend to regard Alan Greenspan as an infallible economic soothsayer. The Federal Reserve is projecting economic growth of 2.5 to 2.75 percent in 2003, meaning a decent increase in the second half of this year, and 3.75 to 4.75 percent in the 2004 election year.

Estimates by private economists tend to be as strong or stronger.

Perhaps Democrats just don't believe these projections. But assuming they don't think Greenspan has gone completely off his rocker, why wouldn't they be hedging their bets politically, rather than still trying so hard to pin the entire economy on Bush? And what will Democratic politicians say about the economy if it is rocking along at 4 to 5 percent growth come fall of 2004?

I have no idea.

But it would be fun to watch.

Here's all the Democrats need to have not happen in order to win the presidency in 2004: neither Saddam Hussein's nor Osama bin Laden's corpses to be found; the low level resistance in Iraq not to peter out or be snuffed out; and zero percent interest rates, massive government spending and huge tax cuts not to trigger some kind of economic recovery. Never mind the fact that this means they are essentially rooting against the national interest, more important from a political perspective, it means the election is out of their hands. They really have nothing to do but hope that the U.S. military and traditional economic theory both fail. One wouldn't think they'd feel too comfortable in that posture. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 21, 2003 9:54 AM