I DO, I DO...FOR NOW

A RELATIONSHIP OF OPPORTUNITY: WASHINGTON AND ISLAMABAD (Matthew Riemer, 7/03/03, EurasiaNet)

Washington's position, which is more desirable and flexible than Islamabad's, sees Pakistan more as a means to a mid-term end - the creation of a Middle Eastern/South Asian anti-terror infrastructure that would allow Washington to squash all threats to its regional hegemony - rather than as a long term and permanent relationship.

Though Musharraf has announced there will be elections held in five years, that doesn't mean that either he or stability will remain until that time: he recently spoke of his own endangerment at the hands of such groups as the MMA in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Subsequently, as Pakistan moves towards uncertainty, Washington will take great interest in the political situation there. If Pakistan were to enter into a period of significant instability it would endanger the US agenda for the region and possibly be the forebear of a realigned Pakistan, one more along the lines of a Taliban era Afghanistan. It is the understanding of this possibility that fuels Musharraf to pledge that Pakistan will not undergo a process of "Talibanization." Washington's fear of a destabilized Pakistan is to Islamabad's advantage, though it may be one neutralized by the fact there's really no alternative for Musharraf.

It is also Washington's need of the continued presence of the Musharraf regime - and the political and military context it offers - that essentially renders criticism of the Pakistani leader and the relationship in general moot: the Bush administration has no intention of disciplining Musharraf over his human rights problems or his, at times at least, lackadaisical approach to far-reaching counterinsurgent efforts.

The United States and Pakistan will remain strategic allies for the time being, though Washington's long term plans for the region see a radicalized and populous Muslim country led by an unelected military figure at odds with the vision of the widely-discussed "reshaping" of the Middle East.

What's the point of giving a military government a wink and a nod if they aren't ruthlessly repressing the forces of destabilization? Posted by Orrin Judd at July 7, 2003 9:18 PM