GRAYS FOR GRAY

To Recall Or Not To Recall (Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Steve Chaggaris, Clothilde Ewing and Smita Kalokhe, July 16, 2003, CBS News)

Hard to imagine, but with more than half of California voters most likely to participate in a recall vote saying they’d vote to remove Gray Davis, things are looking up for the governor. In a new Field poll released Wednesday, the split between the two sides dropped from 15 points (54 percent in favor to 39 percent opposed) to eight points (51 percent in favor to 43 percent opposed) when the sample was changed from all registered voters to voters likely to vote in the recall.

With recall organizers saying they’ve collected more than 1.6 million signatures from Californians who want to see Davis out of the Governor’s Mansion, and making the assumption that Republicans are more likely to vote in the recall election than Democrats, the numbers seem plain wrong.

One explanation is that older voters, who tend to be more cautious and more wary of rocking the boat, are more likely to vote than their younger counterparts, explains poll director Mark DiCamillo in the California Insider.

Another possible explanation is that voters don’t know who will replace Davis should he be ousted. So far, the only candidates officially running are the head of the recall effort, Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, and Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo. The most popular name being thrown around by kids and politicians alike, however, is Hollywood star Arnold Schwarzenegger, who still hasn’t said whether he’ll join the race.

Stay hungry... Posted by Orrin Judd at July 16, 2003 4:50 PM