DISMALISTICS

Economic Turnaround? (Robert J. Samuelson, July 30, 2003, washingtonpost.com)

On the economy, we're all dunces. There's so much conflicting evidence that almost any story -- hopeful, dismal or in between -- can be told with conviction. You, too, can play Alan Greenspan. Although he's better informed, your story could turn out right. [...]

One problem is that we don't always know which numbers to believe. Consider jobs. Two government surveys disagree sharply. One asks businesses how many workers are on their payrolls; the other questions households about who's employed. Since early 2001 the payroll survey shows a job loss of 2.6 million; that figure is widely quoted. But the household survey shows a loss of only 108,000 since early 2001 and a gain of 1.9 million over the past year. Most economists trust the payroll survey, but David Wyss of Standard & Poor's thinks the household survey may be more reliable. He suspects that companies have hired "contract" workers who aren't on firms' payrolls but who count themselves as employed.

Who knows? Everyone's guessing. Confusion is the only honest conclusion.

Nice look at the conflicting reasons to be either hopeful or pessimistic. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 30, 2003 7:09 PM