AGAINST THE AMERICAN GRAIN

Bush Support Holds as Economy Lags: In Grand Rapids, Few Blame President for the Struggles of Local Industries (Jonathan Weisman, July 20, 2003, Washington Post)

National Democrats might hope the political waters of this Republican region would be more unsettled in hard economic times. Since Bush came to office, unemployment in the Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland triangle of Western Michigan has risen to 6.9 percent in May from 5 percent. Manufacturing -- especially the hard-hit business furniture, auto parts and tool-and-die industries -- have hemorrhaged jobs, nearly 53,000 since 2000, according to Michigan statistics. More than 10,000 of those jobs, many of them in management, came from the office furniture industry, which has long kept the area afloat while other parts of the state have sunk.

White-collar managers have found themselves on assembly lines or in temporary jobs. Fortunes have been lost on the stock market. And specific policies of the administration -- such as steel tariffs, budget cuts for manufacturing programs and job training -- have come under criticism from workers and businessmen alike.

But in the political realm, such tumult seems remarkably absent. Instead, the battle lines remain drawn along issues that have long favored Republicans here, including religion, abortion and gun rights. At his June 30 fundraising appearance here, Vice President Cheney made no mention of the region's economic woes and only a glancing reference to the national economy. He did pocket $500,000 for the Bush-Cheney reelection campaign.

"Bush has immense appeal on non-economic issues in that area," said Robert Teeter, a prominent Republican pollster based in Michigan. "The question is whether the economy is enough to offset their strong social and cultural affinity for him."

So far, it would appear that economic issues are not affecting the president's standing here or in the nation at large. A CBS News poll taken this month -- before the administration announced the projected deficit is $455 billion -- found that slightly more than one-third of those questioned said the economy's problems had "a lot" to do with Bush's policies.

The Grand Rapids area could be a harbinger. Michael Johnston, a Grand Rapids high school history teacher and ardent Democrat, said the second largest city in Michigan has long been a test marketing area for business. "Read West Michigan, you read the nation," he said.

Republican strategists are counting on what they call a new sophistication in the electorate, an understanding that the economy's course is determined by forces far greater than the president. They have cause for confidence.

Obviously support like this won't hold indefinitely, but it does make the current Democratic presidential race very dangerous. The big payoff in the primaries looks to come from attacking the President, but that's counter to the general mood of the country. Given that the President won't even have to mention his eventual opponent's name until their first debate, it means whoever that nominee is will be driving up his own negatives while Mr. Bush keeps his own hands clean. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 20, 2003 3:33 PM