60-40 FILES

Endangered Democrats (Washington Times, 6/09/03)

It is 17 months before the next national elections, and Republicans already smell victory in the air. In Capitol Hill watering holes and the halls of congressional office buildings, members and aides are whispering about the prospects of a major power shift in favor of the GOP come November 2004. Senate strategists are daring to predict a possible six- or even seven-seat pickup, which would strengthen the majority party's currently undependable 51 votes. More Republican senators would make significant changes in policy possible exponentially, and prevent legislative logjams, such as the stalling on President Bush's tax cuts. At this early date, however, it is prudent to keep in mind that everything would have to go right to bring about such a lopsided outcome.

Providing fuel for GOP optimism is the list of senators up for reelection. The Democratic Party has four more Senate seats to defend than do Republicans, and 10 of the 19 in play are reasonably possible turnovers. Particularly exciting to Republicans is the opportunity to knock off Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle with former Rep. John Thune, who lost by only 524 votes to Sen. Tim Johnson last year. As South Dakota's only House member, Mr. Thune was elected statewide three times, and a recent poll has him leading Mr. Daschle by two points. Democratic recruiters already are considering presidential candidate Bob Graham's seat vacant because Florida law prevents him from running two races at once, and he seems intent on seeking national office. Homeland Security Department undersecretary Asa Hutchinson, a former House member, is said to be eager to take on Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, which should worry her.

Geography can play an important role in horse races. As National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Dan Allen told us, "Many of the competitive races fall in Bush country, where the president was strong in 2000, which bodes well for our candidates in 2004." Ten of the contested Democratic seats are in states Mr. Bush won in the close 2000 race. For example, Bush-Cheney won North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia by 13, 15 and 17 points respectively. Georgia's Zell Miller announced his retirement in January, and South Carolina's Ernest Hollings isn't raising any money and is expected to announce that he's stepping down too. Numerous polls have shown that first-term North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, whose attention is focused on running for president, would get beaten by Mr. Bush by between 15 and 20 percentage points in his own state, and would face an uphill battle defending his seat. Perhaps the most intriguing rumor is that Louisiana Sen. John Breaux is increasingly dissatisfied as a moderate in an increasingly liberal party--and might duck out of a reelection bid. Mr. Bush won the state by 13 points in 2000.

Asa Hutchinson is a good example of the kind of candidate you need to recruit so that you win the round of re-elections in 2010, not just the elections in 2004. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 1, 2003 8:41 AM