YES, BUT HOW BIG A CONFLAGRATION?

Four Israelis Killed in Gaza Gunfight (FoxNews, 6/8/2003)

Three Palestinian gunmen slipped into an army post near the Gaza border Sunday, killing four Israelis before being killed themselves in the first deadly attack since last week's Mideast peace summit....

The gunmen, all in their early 20s, had been disguised as Israeli soldiers. A leaflet giving their names indicated each was from one of the three Palestinian militant groups -- Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade -- that took joint responsibility for the attack....

The shooting underscored the determination of militants to derail the so-called "road map" to Mideast peace, which envisions a Palestinian state by 2005.

Mahmoud Abbas appears to genuinely want a Palestinian state and to be willing to offer peace to Israel to get it. But the main terror militias, who remain the dominant force in the Palestinian Authority, want to destroy Israel.

With luck, Bush's diplomacy will expose the split in Palestinian ranks, and the malicious desires of the terror faction, so clearly that even Europeans acknowledge it. Israel's commitment to a Palestinian state locates the unreasonableness on one side only, and the carrot of a Palestinian state will help encourage moderate Palestinians to show that Arafat doesn't speak for all. If the terrorists can be widely acknowledged as the roadblock to peace, it becomes diplomatically feasible to kill or imprison them beginning with Arafat. This would be the critical step forward, for there can be no resolution to the conflict until the terrorists are destroyed.

If Israel/Palestine were isolated from the rest of the world, this resolution might happen quickly and straightforwardly. But they are not. Outside forces are eager to defend and strengthen the terrorists, and perhaps are willing to widen the conflict. It is those links between Israel/Palestine and larger global conflicts that makes the situation so dangerous. No Israeli or U.S. government has been willing to destroy the terrorists for fear of wider geopolitical repercussions.

I don't have a good feel for what those repercussions would be; but I am convinced that destroying the terrorists is the only possible step forward, and therefore must be taken, no matter how difficult. But I acknowledge that steps have to be taken first to minimize the damaging consequences. The destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime helped to minimize consequences. I hope that this promotion of a moderate Palestinian alternative is another such step.

A commentator I admire greatly, David Warren, argues that the situation is hopeless. Any genuine effort against the terrorists will lead to a catastrophic blow-up:

I have previously described the peace plan President Bush is now advancing as the "road map to hell", and I did not do so lightly....

Here ... is a bitter truth, especially unpalatable to those with small and compressive minds, who want to blame a person, a party, a class, even a people, for everything wrong in the world. Now it happens there is something wrong that has grown so large that it cannot possibly be ignored, and yet also cannot be fixed by any conceivable exertion of human will. In politics and diplomacy, such a problem typically resolves itself in a large conflagration....

Israel/Palestine is a proxy battle; the fuse but not the bomb. Mr. Bush's thinking is: "Put out the fuse and we may then disarm the bomb at our leisure." But he's too late; even Clinton was too late....

The whole Palestinian society is in the hands of terrorists, and it doesn't matter how many individual Palestinians approve or disapprove. Those who may actually want peace with Israel have neither the leadership nor the physical means to defeat Hamas, Islami Jihad, Hizbollah, Fatah, or even their dancing-master, Yasser Arafat. And nothing short of a Palestinian civil war could possibly remove them.

That is the fuse, but the bomb must also be considered. The entire Arab world, and most of the Muslim beyond it, is too deeply and emotionally invested in that proxy war against Israel, to embrace what must be done to avoid the catastrophe, which I fear lies ahead. As we now learn, even King Abdullah of Jordan very nearly withdrew as host of the summit between Ariel Sharon, Mr. Abbas, and Mr. Bush. He is the best-disposed of all the Arab leaders towards a permanent peace acknowledging Israel's existence, within whatever borders and terms can be agreed. The political heat from below and around was nearly too much, even for him. It must quickly become too much....

As the pressure rises, from Washington and elsewhere, to do the impossible, the point of combustion must be reached....

The more peace is sought, the more war becomes inevitable; and yet peace must be sought.

War against the terrorists is, indeed, inevitable. But must it necessarily explode into a larger war? The goal of today's diplomacy must be to contain the inevitable war to Palestine. I don't think this is beyond hope. But I am an optimist.

Posted by Paul Jaminet at June 8, 2003 4:05 PM