WHERE TROUBLES ARE ALL THE SAME

Democracy on a leash in Jordan (Ian Urbina, 6/21/03, Asia Times)

As most of the coverage quickly points out, recent Jordanian elections saw surprisingly few surprises. Having called off the popular vote first in 1997 and repeatedly thereafter, the Hashemite crown finally decided to roll the electoral dice and, in the end, came out all the stronger.

For a politically rocky region, this was democracy at its smoothest. A clear majority of the seats went to pro-government tribal candidates, thereby diluting what few opposition voices previously resided in parliament. Voter turnout topped 58 percent - a little lower than hoped, but still more than is typical, for example, in United States presidential elections. Jordan's Islamists added credibility to the electoral process. Rather than boycotting, as is typical, they opted to join the process, and much to the relief of the King, they scored only 17 out of 110 total seats, far fewer than expected.

With a brutal Israeli occupation continuing on one border, and a messy US occupation unfolding on another, Jordanian political parties might have decided to use the election season to air pent-up frustrations. But for the most part, they didn't. This was especially noteworthy since 60 percent of Jordanians are Palestinians and close to 90 percent of Jordanians opposed the US invasion of Iraq.

Happiest of all is King Abdullah. In one fell swoop, he reinforced the rubber-stampers he needs, and fortified the democratizer image he so cherishes. The elections were also a step forward for women. Six of the parliamentary seats were set aside for female candidates. Though none were directly voted into office, the top six candidates will be seated in the coming weeks. From a total 776 Jordanians competing for seats in parliament, 54 female candidates ran, the most ever. [...]

But by far the most important challenge lies immediately ahead. The next parliament is supposed to review every one of the "temporary laws" and have the option to accept or reject each. That the political deck has been stacked with pro-regime types raises legitimate skepticism over whether the newly elected parliament will do what is right: begin the across-the-board reversal of these anti-democratic laws. Also dubious for prospects of re-democratization in Jordan is the conservative and non-elected upper house, which has full veto power if the lower and elected parliamentarians step out of line.

The creation of democratic institutions and the resort to democratic rhetoric may well be the best way to evolve towards real democracy. Consider the nation to be a tavern, the institutions and procedures to be glasses, and the rhetoric to be salt peanuts. The government maintains control over the pitcher of beer at the moment but is stoking thirst among the patrons, by feeding them the peanuts, and by placing empty glasses before them has itself imposed the logic of how that thirst will be quenched. Sooner or later, the barkeep has to pour the beer. The trick then is getting folks to drink
in moderation. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 20, 2003 10:49 AM