THE FIRST BOND OF SOCIETY

Mapping May Help Predict Crimes (CHARLES SHEEHAN, June 2, 2003, Associated Press)

More than a decade of extensive crime data collection matched with new technology may soon allow police to predict to a surprising degree of accuracy the number and type of crimes that will occur in a given neighborhood one month in advance.

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University plan to release software later this summer that, according to computer models, can forecast the number and types of crimes that will occur within a 10-block area, with a 20 percent error rate. [...]

With models similar to those used in macroeconomics to warn of recession or inflation, Gorr said researchers matched criminal reports, 911 calls on shots fired, and census data along with a mishmash of yellow page listings and seasonal variations to predict crime numbers.

Because there are stable and affluent white, Hispanic, black and Asian neighborhoods, Gorr said, race is not used in the prediction model and race is not a reliable indicator of crime. Poverty levels and the number of single-mother households, which are included in the prediction model, do occur more frequently in some minority neighborhoods, he said.

After running 36,000 separate forecasts for the month ahead based on a decade's worth of crime data, researchers successfully predicted how many burglaries, arsons, aggravated assaults and car thefts and other crimes would take place in the next month in a 10-block area, Gorr said.

"It's surprising that it worked at all and the 20 percent error area was impressive,'' Gorr said. The new system also forecast crimes that would not likely have been anticipated using traditional crime mapping, he said.

Why not just cut to the chase and do a study to try and find a social pathology that isn't drastically exacerbated by the breakdown of the traditional nuclear family? Posted by Orrin Judd at June 9, 2003 12:18 PM