ON BEING TOO EXPERT TO CUT TO THE CHASE

'Road Map' Flaws Exposed (Shibley Telhami, June 15, 2003, LA Times)

One central problem in the road map is that it asks each side to take steps toward peace before knowing how the critical issues--the fate of Palestinian refugees, borders, settlements, Jerusalem, water--will be resolved. This means that every step will be fitfully taken out of the fear that it will undermine one's leverage for the next one. The certain knowledge that the opposition on both sides will challenge their leaders' every step exacerbates the situation. The same kind of dynamic helped undermine the Oslo accords, which aimed to build confidence incrementally. Instead, it gave Israeli and Palestinian militants bountiful opportunities to undermine the process.

In many ways, the road map faces more obstacles than the Oslo agreements. Among the things going for it is that most Israelis and Palestinians have reconciled themselves to the two-state solution. But the growing perception on both sides that peace is ultimately impossible may become an insurmountable hurdle.

The failure of the Oslo process, after seven years of negotiations, has made Israelis and Palestinians even more impatient. In the early days of Oslo, when optimism prevailed, both sides were willing to accept mere promises. Today, meetings, conferences, handshakes and words are occasions for cynicism. Promises are dismissed. Only acts count--violent acts, it seems. [...]

Although progress toward peace will largely depend on the parties themselves, U.S. mediation, to be successful in this difficult environment, cannot be done on the cheap. Every step called for in the road map requires spending political capital abroad and at home, possibly at the expense of other issues.

It is difficult to read such nonsense without feeling that the point of the peace process is to benefit the experts, diplomats, and others who have a vested interest in process rather than to advance the peace itself. Mr. Telhami argues, I believe correctly, that both sides are reconciled to the two-state solution that has been inevitable since Oslo and are impatient for it to be effected, but that if we use the process to get there each step will be slow and difficult and will waste the political capital of Mr. Sharon, Mr. Abbas, and Mr. Bush. He then recommends that we follow that course.

It would put a bunch of pundits, experts, and foreign officers out of work, but how about just skipping to the final step instead? Posted by Orrin Judd at June 18, 2003 11:36 AM