NOT A PEACE PLAN BUT A STRATEGY

The peace plan show (Barry Rubin, Jun. 24, 2003, Jerusalem Post)

PREMISE: If only Israel cooperates and makes concessions the situation will improve.

Fact: While Palestinian leaders constantly demand concessions from Israel easing security controls, withdrawing from Palestinian-populated areas, releasing Palestinians involved in terrorism, dismantling settlements, and so on they never seem to give anything in exchange. Not a finger is lifted to stop the terrorism, much less any other compromises.

Premise: Israeli attacks on terrorists are counterproductive.

Fact: Given the Palestinian determination to keep fighting, Israeli actions are the only things that can effectively reduce the level of successful terrorism by weakening the terrorists, disrupting their activities and intimidating would-be participants. It is no instant or perfect solution, but it is the only strategy that may achieve anything.

Premise: Saddam Hussein's overthrow has created a chance for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front.

Fact: The war in Iraq has had no perceptible effect on any aspect of this issue.

Premise: The United States is in a position to advance a new peace process.

Fact: While the US certainly has incentives to show it is trying to make progress, it exercises no useful leverage on the Palestinians. It has shown no ability to strengthen Abu Mazen or gain a cessation of terrorism. It cannot even get its European allies to stop trying to build up Arafat and
unconditionally subsidize the PA.

Premise: The road map will bring European and Arab states' policies closer to the US's.

Fact: European and Arab states tend to view the road map as a plan that will automatically bring an independent Palestinian state in two years regardless of what the Palestinian leadership does.

This is wrong as to each point except the last. Israel need make no further concessions, just accept that made at Oslo, that Palestine will be an independent state rather than an Israeli possession. That will end the terrorism, because further attacks will be acts of war by a sovereign nation.

After fifty years of tit for tat, you may not think that retaliation is counter-productive, but we can all agree it isn't productive.

The Iraq war gave President Bush the leverage he needed to tell Ariel Sharon what to do and Mr. Sharon the cover he needed in order to do it.

The Europeans and Arabs are right: there will be a Palestinian state two years from now. If the Israelis weren't locked in a death dance with the Palestinians it would in fact be that state's tenth anniversary two years from now. Negotiations have been a futile mistake, as such things always are, but that has no bearing on the the conclusion that has been inevitable since Oslo: the two state solution.


MORE:
THE DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES (Frank J. Gaffney, Jr., June 24, 2003, Jewish World Review) Posted by Orrin Judd at June 24, 2003 10:59 AM