JACKPOT

Musharraf cooks up an American banquet (Syed Saleem Shahzad, 6/17/03, Asia Times)

Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's visit to the United States and his meeting with President George W Bush on June 24 are likely to lay the foundations for landmark changes in Pakistan's policies, including those on Israel, Kashmir, its nuclear program and the army. Sources in the Foreign Office familiar with the agenda say that key decisions likely to be agreed on by Musharraf and Bush at Camp David include the following:

* A clear road map for resolution of the Kashmir conflict in which the "Chanab" formula, which envisages the division of Kashmir along religious lines, is likely to be adopted. Thus, the Muslim-majority areas would be allowed to join Pakistan, while the areas where Hindus and Buddhists are in the majority would remain with India.

* A rollback in Pakistan's nuclear and missile program pursuant to the resolution of the Kashmir issue.

* Deployment of Pakistani troops in Iraq, subject to a financial deal to be agreed on by the US and Pakistan.

* Renewed assistance in Afghanistan to contain the burgeoning revival of the Taliban movement. Before the elections scheduled in Afghanistan later in the year, Pakistan will help the US to eliminate the power vacuum in the country by mediating talks with the various Afghan groups, including the Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the Taliban and other Pashtun factions.

* Cutbacks in the Pakistani armed forces. Pakistan has already laid off 300,000 personnel.

* Recognition for Israel. Initially, the two countries would establish "track II" diplomacy, and once the grounds were prepared, Pakistan would announce its recognition of the Israeli state. In return, the US would waiver US$1.8 billion in bilateral debt. The US has already written off $1 billion in return for Islamabad's support after the September 11 attacks and for its reversal of support for the Taliban.

The Administration has taken a lot of heat for its support of Musharraf, but that's a pretty enormous pay-off. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 17, 2003 8:37 AM