IS THAT THE SOUND OF A FAT LADY I HEAR.

Students Roil Iranian Capital in 3rd Night of Protests
(Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 6/13/03).

TEHRAN, Friday, June 13 — A third night of student protests outside Tehran University's dormitories exploded into the surrounding middle-class neighborhoods early today, with large gangs of students fighting running street battles against vigilantes armed with sticks and chains. At one major intersection demonstrators hurled bricks at trucks of riot policemen who were rushing to lift barricades and douse fires protesters had ignited in the streets.

The protesters chanted "Death to Khamenei," a slogan that can bring a jail term in this country, where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme religious leader, goes unquestioned.

"I've been lashed, jailed for having a satellite dish," said a student, underscoring the simmering social frustrations behind the riots. "It's time to stand up for what we want." . . .

Joining the students were some older government workers and even women dressed in the sweeping black cloaks favored in poorer neighborhoods. . . .

"We want more freedom," said one 34-year-old government worker, who gave his name as Mahmoud. "For 25 years we have lived without any freedom. We want social freedom, economic freedom and political freedom," Nevertheless, he said he doubted the demonstrations would bring down the government because they were random and lacked organization. . . .

The fall of the governments of Iraq and Afghanistan, although both despised by Tehran, created a certain sense of vulnerability here. The United States now has troops stationed along Iran's east and west flanks, and the Bush administration last year lumped Iran with Iraq and North Korea as part of the "axis of evil."

In the last few weeks, senior American officials have called for a change in government in Iran, accusing it of trying to destabilize Iraq, undermining the Middle East peace effort, developing nuclear weapons in secret and sheltering Al Qaeda fugitives. Senior American officials have denied any plans for military action. . . .

The sudden appearance of thousands of protesters evidently contributed to a case of jitters among some circles in Iran's jigsaw puzzle of a government.

Persian-language broadcasts beamed into Iran, mostly from Los Angeles, worked to swell the protests by urging people to take to the streets. Although satellite dishes are illegal, the channels are widely seen in the middle-class neighborhoods that cut across the northern parts of the city. . . .

Many students familiar with events in Iraq are quick to voice support for American intervention here, although they are widely skeptical of the motives of the Bush administration.

"Of course it would be better if Iranians could liberate their country themselves," said Muhammad, 21, an engineering student. "But we have reached the point where we need a foreign force."

Others are appalled by such attitudes, warning that Iranians' generally positive attitude toward the United States would evaporate the moment the first Iranian was killed.

The first day of protests was unexpectedly set off by a government proposal to consider privatizing the universities. A few cellphone calls by protesters to a Los Angeles television station prompted the station to call on all Iranians to pour into the streets. Hundreds got into their cars and went down to see the demonstration, joining the students in their chants.

Despite my optimistic tag, above, I don't think these demonstrations will bring down the government. But one of the lessons of the last fifteen years is that it is difficult to predict exactly when an unstable government will fall. These demonstrations do buttress my belief that the Iranian government is not stable and is doomed in the long run. One thing that will help is if we keep the heat on the government -- something we do by providing revolutionary programming and by having troops in the neighborhood. Nevertheless, it is in our interest for the government to be changed from inside the country. If Iraq is to be the new Germany, perhaps Iran can be the new Poland. Posted by David Cohen at June 13, 2003 3:11 PM