DOMINO THEORY

Iraq democratizing Iran? (Pepe Escobar, 6/20/03, Asia Times)

Among all the misunderstandings, the Shi'ites' overall strategy in Iraq seems to be the one that is really sound. Instead of just playing the demographic card - they comprise more than 60 percent of the population - a substantial part of the Shi'ite leadership is trying to accommodate the Americans. That's the case of crucial characters like Ayatollah Bakr al-Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Assembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI), who returned to Iraq after 23 years of exile in Iran. Even while he relishes ironic commentaries on American "democrats" who "refuse the Iraqis to elect their own representatives", he wants no confrontation. In the face of calls in some quarters for various forms of jihad against the Americans, Hakim's reaction was extremely measured, considering Bremer's delaying of the election in Najaf, as Hakim's candidate had a very good chance of winning. [...]

There are no Desert Scorpion-style operations in Shi'ite country. Najaf and the whole Shi'ite south has met the American invasion and occupation with no resistance. Unlike the Sunni triangle around and north of Baghdad, there have been no attacks against the Americans. The extremely influential Shi'ite religious leaders congregated at al-Hawza have not adhered to the calls towards a guerrilla war against the invaders. On Friday prayers, there are no anti-American slogans.

Compare this with Baghdad and surrounding areas where US and Iraqi soldiers as well as civilians continue to come under deadly attack, all of which serve to steel the resolve of the Sunni Iraqi resistance against what is widely perceived as an insensitive and heavy-handed American approach. [...]

Shi'ites are fierce partisans of democracy and the principle of "one person, one vote". And as well as the Kurds, they also want federalism: this, by the way, is the official position of the SAIRI. Whatever American schemes are concocted to minimize Shi'ite participation in a future Iraqi government, they know that ultimately Shi'ites have the demographic majority in their favor. And on top of it there is the deliberate effort not to jeopardize the departure of the Americans - which they believe could happen in a year or two - by any kind of armed offensive. [...]

Will Iran and Iraq complement each other? The answer may hinge on the impact of the more than 3,000 Iraqi Shi'ite religious leaders who came back home from exile in Iran. If a separation between religion and politics successfully takes place in Iraq, the road is paved for a secular Shi'ite-dominated Iraqi regime being able to give the Iranian theocracy a democracy lesson.

That's one heck of a big "if", but it's perhaps the most important one in Islam's history. Unless some way can be found to reduce the influence of Islam over day to day governance while retaining its central role in society, the Middle East will continue to fester.

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-US wages war from within Iran (Richard M Bennett, 6/19/03, Asia Times) Posted by Orrin Judd at June 19, 2003 9:35 PM