BLUEBLOOD OF THE RED STATES LURES BLUE COLLARS

The Bad News for Big Labor: Blue Collars Love This Blueblood (Richard S. Dunham, 6/26/03, Business Week)

Labor's basic problem: It's up against a plain-spoken, tough-guy President who commands the affection of blue-collar workers. Democratic consultant Brian Lunde, an unabashed Bush admirer, compares the President's rank-and-file support to that of Ronald Reagan, who captured a six-pack bloc dubbed Reagan Democrats. "Once in a while, strong leadership and personal character traits can trump interest-group issues checklists," says Lunde.

Worried union leaders want to make sure that this flirtation with the GOP remains a fleeting infatuation. Otherwise, the political consequences could be devastating for Democrats. If Bush makes major inroads among working-class voters in 2004, it could tip the balance in swing states throughout the industrial heartland that Al Gore carried in 2000. Among them: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Polls show the President riding a wave of blue-collar popularity, particularly among whites. In Michigan, Bush receives a 63% favorable rating from white unionists and 59% from labor women, according to a May 18-22 EPIC/MRA poll. Among the families of white union members, the President leads an unnamed Democrat by 56% to 32%. Many working stiffs "still like Bush even if they have profound disagreements on [economic] policy," says Catholic University political scientist John Kenneth White. "It's values, stupid, and Democrats still don't get it."

Four major factors worked against George W. Bush in 2000, making his victory improbable:

(1) He was up against a popular incumbent VP in a time of unprecedented peace and prosperity.

(2) He'd had a very difficult primary battle that did him particular harm in what should have been an area of strength--the Catholic Midwest.

(3) He had a reputation for being a lightweight.

(4) The last minute revelation of a drunk driving arrest nearly sank him.

Despite all of these negatives, he still managed to win.

Now he heads into a re-election where he'll be renominated by acclamation, after having dispelled most peoples' doubts by leading the country through one of its more difficult periods, to face a challenger of lilliputian stature who will himself have had a bruising primary fight and who will have no money all Summer, while Mr. Bush will be all over the airwaves.

Unlike his father, Mr. Bush had the good fortune to inherit a slowing economy so that he will be running during an obvious recovery. The
Republicans control both houses of Congress and with a chance to pick up more seats, especially in the Senate, will be the more energized party at the grassroots level. There is no major divisive issue--nothing that rises to the level of degregation or Vietnam--that has the country at war with itself at this time (abortion could be such an issue but is tending in favor of the Right so has become fairly quiet). The President's health is not an issue--as it was for FDR, Ike, and Reagan when they sought re-election--but his vice president's is, and this could give him the opportunity to name a black woman running mate from California, one of the great political trifectas of all time.

The stars are all lining up for what could be a rout of historic proportions in November 2004. Neither Democrats nor the press have yet come to grips with this, but when they do things are going to get very ugly. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 24, 2003 11:45 PM