May 1, 2003

THE SINS OF THE FATHERS WILL BE VISITED UPON THE CHILDREN - HOW MANY GENERATIONS?

SARS Plays Into Beijing's Hands (Bruce Gilley, Asian Wall Street Journal, 5/1/2003)
Already, Communist Party chief Hu Jintao has skillfully used foreign criticism of the cover-up to purge a minor ally of outgoing leader Jiang Zemin ...

By his actions so far, Mr. Hu has already sent two clear signals. One that Mr. Jiang's camp, which now includes the army (where the former president still clings to his sole remaining official position, as chairman of the Central Military Commission) is not exempt from the same standards as others. Another that a split leadership would be a disaster and Mr. Jiang should stay out of the ring for good.

The decision to appoint the hard-nosed technocrat Wu Yi as interim health minister was taken by the Politburo Standing Committee on April 17 without consulting Mr. Jiang in advance....

Among the broader political leadership in Beijing, the crisis is being taken as a sign of the need for a stronger and more intrusive state.... Mr. Hu and company seem to regard the health crisis as an argument in favor of strengthening the communist state. Too much flirtation with popular rule at local levels and popular input had weakened the ability of the state to respond, they argue.

On the one hand, economic reforms and devolutions of political power have created alternative power centers to the central state and have begun to move China toward freedom. On the other hand, mainland Chinese remain largely unfamiliar with Judeo-Christian moral principles and have not experienced the culture derived from those principles. Traditional Chinese culture has attractive elements, but many of these were damaged during the Cultural Revolution. China's rulers are powerful and her citizens submissive. Such submission tends to generate submerged anger, which totalitarian rulers can easily redirect in nationalist directions -- as we saw during the US-China surveillance plane standoff. China remains, therefore, a country worth concern.

Many older and overseas Chinese fear the mainland Chinese who grew up during and after the Cultural Revolution. Hu Jintao, born in December 1942, is on the elder cusp of that generation. It will be interesting to see where China goes under his leadership.

Posted by Paul Jaminet at May 1, 2003 10:02 AM
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