NEW BRITH OF FREEDOM

Some see Jewish shift toward GOP (Anne E. Kornblut, 5/7/2003, Boston Globe)

[A]fter a year and a half of strong statements from President Bush about fighting terrorism, along with his equally strong backing of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel, some prominent analysts in both parties say they detect a shift in the Jewish community. For the first time in more than 20 years, one Democratic pollster said he sensed an erosion of support from Jewish activists that could affect the presidential race. And according to researchers at B'nai Brith, younger Jewish Americans seem more likely to lean Republican than their parents.

Younger Jews do not have the attachment to defining moments in Democratic history like the New Deal that their parents and grandparents do, making them more open to consider voting for a Republican candidate, the researchers said.

''Our conclusion is, there's going to be a fight for the Jewish vote in 2004,'' said Jay Garfinkel, executive editor of the B'nai Brith magazine International Jewish Monthly, which is publishing the report. [...]

In standing up to other countries, Bush has struck a chord with some Jewish voters, who may be liberal on social issues but are generally hawkish on foreign policy, according to University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

''I think some Jewish voters have been attracted to Bush's strength and national security stands beyond Israel,'' he said. ''They prefer a strong foreign policy leader to a weak one, and we've seen this before in previous highs among Jews voting Republican. There's certainly a precedent for this.

''It's part of the Bush-Rove strategy of marginal gains,'' Sabato said. ''They're not going to carry the Jewish-American vote, but they can increase their performance from 2000, and in so doing make it much more difficult for a Democrat to win.''

The Democratic pollster agreed, saying: ''Right after Sept. 11, there were polls that said Jews liked Bush. Well, everyone liked Bush then.

''Having said that, there has been some erosion on the part of community influentials, leaders, even some money people,'' he said. ''At the highest echelon [of leadership], there has been some erosion, but that is not evident in the general public.''

Republicans have been trying to lay claim to the Jewish vote for years. With the exception of the Reagan election in 1980 -- in which estimates suggest he earned 39 percent of the Jewish vote, compared with 45 percent for Jimmy Carter -- there have been wide gaps between Republicans and Democrats for decades. Other estimates say George H.W. Bush won just 11 percent of the Jewish vote, compared with 9 percent for Ross Perot and 80 percent for Bill Clinton. In the last election, George W. Bush won just 19 percent of the Jewish vote, and Al Gore won 78 percent, estimates say.

The most favorable scenario for the GOP is unfortunately unlikely--that Joe Lieberman and Al Sharpton remain in the presidential race for some time. This would not only naturally exacerbate the tensions between Jews and blacks but might focus the campaign on specific issues that divide the two groups--affirmative action and Palestine. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 7, 2003 7:09 PM