May 13, 2003

FLIRTING WITH DISASTER

Tension Between Dean and Kerry Helps Recast Race for Democrats (ADAM NAGOURNEY, 5/12/03, NY Times)
The political fortunes of two New Englanders battling for the Democratic presidential nomination, Howard Dean and John Kerry, have become entangled in a way that has sharpened tension between them and recast the dynamics of the party's presidential competition.

The tension was evident in their edgy exchanges over the Iraq war at the first Democratic debate last week: Dr. Dean, the former governor of Vermont, and Senator Kerry, of Massachusetts, became so animated that three of their colleagues advised them to calm down. Dr. Dean and Mr. Kerry now say they regret, at least to some extent, the way they acted during parts of the forum.

But the early animosity reflects calculations by the two candidates as they compete for many of the same voters and look to what their aides describe as a critical contest in 2004: the primary in a state with which their home states both share a border, New Hampshire.

Beyond that, the clash has offered an insight into the style of two generally liberal Democrats from New England who beyond that could hardly be more different in manner or temperament and who do not seem to like each other very much.

Dr. Dean is a scrappy if diminutive candidate who has commandeered attention with his antiwar platform and sometimes impolitic abandon. Mr. Kerry is a solemn and towering Vietnam war veteran who is given to measured words and nuanced positions as he presents himself as the established front-runner.

Democratic party leaders said a fight like theirs was not helpful for Mr. Kerry, given his presumed stature in the race, and Mr. Kerry and his aides have tried in recent days to ratchet down the volume.

But the attention it has drawn for the underfinanced Dr. Dean may prove to be just what the doctor ordered. And it does not appear to be going away any time soon, in no small part because of Dr. Dean.

Even though the structure and dynamics of the Democratic presidential race made this almost inevitable, having the campaign turn into Dean vs, Kerry is a disaster. The two start to the Left of their own Party and will only push each other farther and farther out of the mainstream, yet one's going to win NH, get a big bounce by beating the other, and be the front-runner in a compressed primary season. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 13, 2003 8:09 AM
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