BAYHWAYS

Bayh?s vote for tax cut vexes Dems (Geoff Earle, May 21, 2003, The Hill)

Several Senate Democrats voiced surprise and disappointment Tuesday at Sen. Evan Bayh?s (D-Ind.) decision to vote for President Bush?s tax cut proposal.

Some of them have also questioned Bayh?s political reasoning, noting that he holds a relatively safe seat in a Republican leaning state.

?I don?t think any of us expected Bayh?s vote,? said one Democratic senator who declines to be quoted by name.

With Bayh?s help, the tax cut cleared the Senate last week by a slim 51-49 majority. [...]

Two other Democrats, Sens. Zell Miller (D-Ga.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) also supported the Senate version.

Sen. John Breaux (D-La.), the Democrats? chief deputy whip and a key negotiator on tax issues, said: ?I didn?t know what [Bayh] was going to do. I hadn?t talked to him about it.?

Breaux added that the Democrats didn?t conduct a whip count on the vote. ?It was a surprise. Everyone?s got to do what he thinks he needs to do to represent his own state. It?s his deal.?[...]

Bayh, who heads the Democratic Leadership Council, an organization of Democratic centrists, has been considered a rising star in Democratic politics. He turned down a chance to run for governor of Indiana, a job he already held for two terms.

His popularity and wide name identification (buoyed by his father Birch Bayh?s long Indiana political career) have given him a relatively safe seat, even though Indiana is considered a largely Republican state. Bayh is up for reelection in 2004.

Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), who heads the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Tuesday that Indiana is not a top-tier target for the group.

Bayh has also been mentioned as a candidate for national office, although he declined to join several other Senate colleagues in jumping into the race for the presidency. He has also been mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick, although one Democratic senator questioned how Bayh?s tax cut vote might play among Democratic base voters.

?He?s a guy who is interested in national office at some point,? said the senator. ?In terms of being put on a ticket this year as a second choice, that vote isn?t in the right direction. I would think it would be hard voting for that bill to be warmly received by a convention.?

It's quite astonishing that this story ignores the fact that Evan Bayh was the campaign manager for his three-term incumbent father, Birch, in 1980 when he lost a safe Senate seat to an inconsequential bit of fluff, Dan Quayle. That's not the kind of lesson that politicians ever forget. And given that George W. Bush carried Indiana by 16% in 2000, while he was losing the popular vote nationwide to Al Gore, one can easily imagine him posting a 20% margin this time. Mr. Bayh is a popular former governor of the state and should win, but he'd be a fool to take it for granted.

The other possibility that's ignored here is that Mr. Bayh sees his best chance of moving up to the national stage as serving in the next Bush cabinet. After the 2004 Senate election, Democrats may well be reduced to not only a long-term but a vetoable minority. With Southerners like Bob Graham, John Edwards, and Fritz Hollings on their way out, possibly along with the current "moderate" leadership--Tom Daschle and Harry Reid--Mr. Bayh also faces a caucus likely to be led by the Party's more liberal members, who will proceed with an agenda antithetical to his own political interests, if not his personal views. Being a Senator may be one of the best jobs in the world, but being an out of favor member of a semi-permanent minority can't look very inviting. On the other hand, absent the bitterness of the Florida debacle, President Bush is likely to be able to prevail on some Democrats more substantial than Norm Minetta to join his next government. Mr. Bayh's moderate politics and gubernatorial experience--joined with a few helpful votes on major legislation--would make him a natural choice for a significant post. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 21, 2003 9:53 AM