THE WAGES OF CONTAINMENT:

Escalation of air war designed to squeeze loyalists into turning on Saddam (ROBERT BURNS, March 21, 2003, AP)

In escalating the aerial bombardment of Iraq on Friday, U.S. commanders crossed a threshold in a psychological campaign meant to unravel the Iraqi government.

They hoped that the promise of hundreds more airstrikes throughout the country, plus the advance of thousands of American ground troops toward the gates of Baghdad, would compel key people in President Saddam Hussein's inner circle to turn on him, U.S. officials said.

"They're beginning to realize, I suspect, that the regime is history," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told a Pentagon news conference. "And as that realization sets in, their behavior is likely to begin to tip and to change. Those close to Saddam Hussein will likely begin searching for a way to save themselves."

But the time for capitulation was rapidly expiring. Pentagon officials speaking on condition of anonymity said as many as 1,500 Air Force and Navy bombs and missiles would hammer targets throughout Iraq in the 24 hours after the accelerated air campaign began Friday.

One senior official said Gen. Tommy Franks, who is running the war from a command post in the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar, would calibrate the intensity of the air war to build maximum pressure on Saddam's lieutenants.

By early next week, however, U.S. ground forces led by the Army's 3rd Infantry Division are likely to be at the outskirts of Baghdad.

"The intention is to convince the regime that it is time to leave, and if they don't we will try to take them out by force," Rear Adm. Matthew G. Moffit, commander of

Unfortunately, having let Saddam win in 1991 and then dawdling around for twelve years has left him a more credible threat to these guys than we are, so the bombing--which works out close to one a minute--may be necessary to definitively break them. Alternatively, if someone produced Saddam's corpse we might be able to avoid this level of bombing, but then we'd risk mayhem in the city. So, presumably, we'll only produce the proof of his death when our troops are in position to exert control. And, of course, the lesson for the future is to make sure enemies have reason to take our threats seriously. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2003 8:51 PM