A WHATEVER, IF YOU CAN KEEP IT:

For Sunnis, Shias, Kurds and Turks, when war stops, the trouble starts (David Pryce-Jones, 23/03/2003, Daily Telegraph)

Iraq's exiled democratic politicians know what needs to be done to avoid a repeat of the old endless cycle of violence. Ahmed Chalabi, the President of the Iraqi National Congress, has built a coalition of religious and ethnic leaders. He has even got Hakim al-Bakr on board. Chalabi is going to host the constitutional conference in which Iraqis will decide what political constitution they will adopt: a parliamentary democracy, a presidential democracy, or even a constitutional monarchy, are all possibilities. Whatever constitution the conference decides upon will be put to a popular vote before it is ratified.

Once that has happened, a new, democratic Iraq should be safely on its way. But it will take about two years to get to that point - and it is in those two years that Iraq is liable to split itself apart, as the totalitarian apparatus of the Ba'ath Party is destroyed, and perhaps 40 of Saddam's top henchmen are tried for their crimes (including men such as Ali Majid, or "Chemical Ali", who gassed Halabja).

There is only one force that has the power to guarantee that disputes in Iraq are resolved without violence. That force is the American army. American military power can prevent Iraq from sliding into anarchy, as it has prevented civil war from breaking out in Afghanistan since the removal of the Taliban regime, protecting Mohammed Karzai - who is committed to peaceful politics - from the warlords, who are not.

The Americans can ensure that only peaceful procedures are used in Iraq. But to do so, they will have to use their power subtly, indeed almost invisibly. It would be a terrible blunder if the Americans try to act as an adjudicator in Iraq's religious and political disputes, deciding who will get which of the spoils of war. If the Americans start to be perceived as meddling in Iraq's internal politics, the result will undo any possible good that might have come from removing Saddam.

A benign America, one that acts only to prevent the fanatics or the bloodthirsty in Iraq from wresting control from the politicans committed to non-violent procedures, would be profoundly appreciated. An imperial America would be the fastest way to turn Iraq into a fanatically anti-American country generating terrorists faster than the West Bank.

My old teacher, Professor Elie Kedourie, who was born in Baghdad, insisted that "You must always keep your eye on the corpses." The Americans have done so during the war. They must continue to do so once the war is over. For if they do not, the number of bodybags could be higher than anyone has imagined.

No matter what they end up with, so long as it's representative, will be an improvement, so we can't get hung up on making them too "democratic". Posted by Orrin Judd at March 23, 2003 12:31 AM