RSR (cont.):

GOP Hoping for Party Switchers (Susan Crabtree, November 04, 2002, Roll Call)

While the vast majority of lawmakers and political operatives are consumed with predictions about Tuesday, a handful of House Republicans are looking to a subsequent election - the battle for the Democratic leader's job - for another chance to pick up seats. [...]

For months now, speculation that Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) will step down from the top leadership spot in the Democratic Caucus has set up the possibility of a faceoff between Pelosi, an unapologetic liberal, and Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas) for the top job.

Should Pelosi win the top spot, Republicans have their eye on Rep. Ralph Hall (Texas) and several other conservative members of the Blue Dog Coalition - most notably Reps. Bud Cramer (Ala.), Ken Lucas (Ky.), Chris John (La.) and Jim Matheson (Utah) - as potential party switchers.

"There's a good probability that if Nancy Pelosi becomes the leader after Gephardt steps down that a number of Members will be so uncomfortable they'd leave," one GOP leadership aide said.

Such party switching, in the House and Senate, might be just one benefit from a good Republican day tomorrow. Democrats can't assume that they'll do better in '04, with President Bush actually on the ticket, than they'll do tomorrow. So they're looking at 2006 at the earliest for having a decent chance at taking back Congress. Meanwhile, if you're in a district or state that elects such a conservative Democrat (you) and votes Republican at the presidential level, you've got to wonder if you can withstand the 2004 election if you remain a Democrat. If your party has moved well to your left and you may lose your seat anyway because of it, mightn't it make sense to switch? Posted by Orrin Judd at November 4, 2002 9:08 PM