INSECURITY:

The Shocking Third Rail of Election 2002 (David Hogberg, 11/8/02, American Prowler)

[S]enate candidates Jim Talent (Missouri), John Sununu (New Hampshire), and House candidate and incumbent Jim Leach (Iowa)...[e]ach won by relatively small margins of 1%, 4%, and 6%, respectively. Although none of them made reform a prominent issue in his campaign, none of them ever backed away from personal accounts as an option for younger workers. Despite being attacked with a flurry of Democratic ads, both Sununu and Talent maintained their positions in support of reform. Leach's opponent, Julie Thomas, made news when she signed an AFL-CIO pledge against privatizing Social Security. Despite this, Leach insisted in a televised debate he was open to the option of personal accounts.

Next consider the two candidates who made reform a major issue in their campaigns. One was North Carolina Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole, who discussed the issue often at campaign stops. The other was Rep. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania's 15th district. In a district with a heavy elderly population, Toomey made personal accounts a centerpiece of his campaign, resulting in a feature about him on the Wall Street Journal op-ed page. These two candidates had even larger victory margins. Elizabeth Dole won by 9%, and Toomey won by 14%, his biggest margin to date.

So why did Republicans who stuck by their guns do so well? A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll provides an important clue. The poll does show that support for personal accounts has waned, from 63% in April 2002 to 52% in September. However, an even larger majority is worried about the current system. A full 67% either say it is in a "crisis" or faces "major problems." Even for the 65-and-older cohort, the number is a substantial 43%. That is little changed from December 1998. So while support for reform fluctuates, anxiety about the current system persists.

This is another issue that has to have Democrats scared. Despite a bear market that's seen the Dow give up as much as a third of its value, public opinion continues to favor, even if only slightly, the personal accounts that Republicans are advocating. And where such privatization was most explicitly at issue the Republicans won. Here in NH, where Jeanne Shaheen and the Democrats made it sound like John Sununu wanted seniors to end their days eating Alpo, he never backed away from his position (nor did Congressman Charlie Bass) and, in fact, never seemed particularly uncomfortable defending it.
Posted by Orrin Judd at November 10, 2002 6:13 AM