APPOINTMENT IN MASADA:

Tipping Left Toward 2004 (David S. Broder, November 13, 2002, The Washington Post)

The next and larger battle for the Democratic future will take place in the fight for the party's presidential nomination. That struggle will play out largely in 2003, because the accelerated calendar has Iowa and New Hampshire voting in the last half of January 2004, and South Carolina in early February.

The dominant figure in the Iowa Democratic Party is Sen. Tom Harkin, the late Paul Wellstone's best friend in the Senate and perhaps the closest to Wellstone's populism of any Democrat now in office. Harkin's spirit pervades the Iowa caucuses and sets the tone for any Democrat campaigning in that state. And liberal unions, notably the United Auto Workers, provide the votes a candidate needs.

With Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's loss in last week's Senate race, New Hampshire has no Democratic tone-setter. The state has shown a liking for New Democrats who are sensitive to the high-tech economy -- Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Bill Clinton. But in 2000 Bill Bradley came close to upsetting Al Gore by running to his left on economic and social issues.

In South Carolina, the key for Democratic presidential hopefuls will be gaining black support. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the sole African American in the delegation, is the man to woo and win.

All this suggests that the political terrain in 2003-2004 will tip Democratic presidential candidates to the left. And few of them are likely to resist.

Make a left turn at Florida 2000 and when you get to oblivion plunge over the cliff. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 13, 2002 4:20 PM