TOO CLEVER BY HALF:

Still Living Dangerously (PAUL KRUGMAN, October 15, 2002, NY Times)

A smart terrorist understands that he is not engaged in conventional warfare. Instead he kills to call attention to his cause, to radicalize moderates, to disrupt the lives and livelihoods of those who would prefer not to be involved, to provoke his opponents into actions that drive more people into his camp.

In case you haven't noticed, the people running Al Qaeda are smart. Saturday's bombing in Bali, presumably carried out by a group connected to Al Qaeda, was monstrously evil. It was also, I'm sorry to say, very clever. And it reinforces the sinking feeling that our leaders, who seem determined to have themselves a conventional war, are playing right into the terrorists' hands.

Yesterday on NPR's Talk of the Nation they spoke to Jeffrey Winters of Northwestern University. It's well worth listening to if you get a chance. Mr. Winters made the point that if you look at who benefits and who loses within Indonesia as a result of the bombing it's the military that comes out best. First, the military resents the Australians because they served as the peace-keeping force in East Timor. Second, while they've been willing to use fundamentalism to further their own ends, the military apparently has little love for the radicals. Meanwhile, the current Indonesian government has been so weak that it has failed to crack down on Islamic terror groups. But this bombing, which will have a dire economic impact, particularly on tourism and foreign investment, should finally provide the justification for government action. Finally, Mr. Winters noted that while the bombing and the economic and political stability that follows will serve to undermine the government, Islamicists are not the ones who will step into the breach, rather the military would be more likely to take over.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 15, 2002 8:35 AM