THE WIDOW WALKS:

Centrist State on Center Stage: Close Missouri Race Between Carnahan, Talent Reflects National Split (Lois Romano, October 11, 2002, Washington Post)

Missouri historically is a polarized state, epitomized by the contentious battle for this same seat two years ago, between then-Sen. John D. Ashcroft (R) and Carnahan's husband, Mel, the Missouri governor who was killed with their son in a plane crash 22 days before the election. Mel Carnahan became the first dead man elected to the Senate, and the Democratic governor appointed his widow to the seat. She and Talent, a former House member, are vying to complete the term.

What is particularly unusual about this battle is that the dynamics of the race have not perceptibly changed in nearly a year, despite millions of dollars spent on advertising, through presidential visits and poignant reminders of a tragedy past. Today, the polls on any given day show the candidates virtually even, with about 10 percent of the electorage undecided.

One wild card in the race could be the two debates, the first of which is Oct. 21. Talent is believed to be more facile on the issues, which may or may not help him. He projects a comfortable, easygoing demeanor, but tends to get too arcane in his explanations. Carnahan may not have her opponent's depth on the issues, but she is an experienced public speaker who conveys her views succinctly.

From what you hear even her Democrat colleagues consider her a joke and she could just get pummelled in these debates. As an incumbent, even an unusual one, she should have put this race away by now and the fact that she hasn't has to worry the Democrats. They had to expect to pick up a couple Senate seats but Tim Hutchinson in AR has gotten back into a rough tie in his race and the only other incumbent Republican who's struggling is Wayne Allard in CO. Meanwhile, they're on the defensive here, in NJ, and with Wellstone in MN. It's hard to see them doing better than staying at 50 seats, which is an abysmal showing. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 11, 2002 9:40 PM