THE GATHERING STORM:

U.S. study Says Indo-Israeli Invasion of Pakistan Probable (IslamOnline, 10/19/02)

A new U.S. study says India could invade Pakistan (possibly with Israeli help) if Islamists gained ascendancy there. This would be to forestall Islamist control of nuclear weapons, the study said.

The study, Transforming America's Military, published by America's National Defence University, said there was a "distinct prospect" for such a development in the next few years.

"The nightmare scenario of the next few years is that American and allied military operations in South or Southwest Asia end up severely destabilising the Pakistani regime," the study said.

A coup or capture of power by an Islamist faction within the military or chaotic conditions like a civil war would diminish "the reliability of central control of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal," the report said. In a situation like that India and Israel could intervene to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into Islamist hands, the report said.

The report describes India as "an important nuclear-armed ally of the U.S." and Pakistan as "very fragile ally." Indo-Israeli invasion could unleash a major regional war in which "use of nuclear weapons could not be precluded."

Written by Peter Wilson, a senior political analyst at Rand Corporation, and Richard D. Sokolsky, a research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defence University, the study echoes reports originating from America in September last year.

It matters not whether any such thing is imminent: what matters is that the Axis of Evil and its allies begin to appreciate that such previously improbable military alliances are becoming more likely as a de facto Axis of Good forms--including at least India, Israel, Turkey, Russia, Taiwan, Britain, Australia, and the U.S.. This is also precisely the kind of unilateral action that is going to become more common in our future, so folks better get used to it. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 19, 2002 4:58 PM