PRUNING THE GARDEN STATE:

Torricelli's Decision Shifts Race Toward Democrats DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI, October 13, 2002, NY Times)

Mr. Forrester, who is still trying to establish his political identity with the public, has asked for as many one-on-one debates as possible; Mr. Lautenberg, who is well known because of the 18 years he served in the Senate, has said he will only debate if minor party candidates are also included.

Mr. Forrester has proven himself to be a crafty counterpuncher, though. For most of this year, Mr. Forrester's performance on the campaign trail reflected the fact that he has not run for office since he was elected to the Town Council of West Windsor, N.J., in 1982. Since late August, however, Mr. Forrester has appeared forceful and aggressive.

After losing his legal challenge to keep Mr. Lautenberg off the ballot, Mr. Forrester has taken the offensive, saying that the Democratic political machine had made New Jersey "a national joke" by allowing the candidate switch after the deadline stated in the law.

While it is unclear whether that argument will sway voters, polls suggest that the change in candidates has appeared to energize Mr. Forrester's Republican base.

The Forrester campaign has also brought up Mr. Lautenberg's age, suggesting that a rigorous debate schedule might be too taxing for him, and asking in a news release, "Is Frank Lautenberg running from his record or is he getting forgetful?"

Political strategists warn that such arguments can backfire by offending elderly voters, who are a crucial segment of the electorate. Mr. Forrester points out, however, that during Mr. Lautenberg's first Senate race, in 1982, he made a similar argument against his opponent, Millicent Fenwick, who was 72.

"There shouldn't be a limit on age," Mr. Forrester said, "but there should be a limit on hypocrisy."

All things being equal, Mr. Lautenberg would have been a heavy favorite if he'd been in this race all along. Add the Carnahan effect, as he swooped in to rescue the party and Mr. Forrester's supposed non-entity status, this should be a walkover by now.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 13, 2002 9:58 AM