IT'S ONLY A DREAM, IT'S ONLY A DREAM, IT'S ONLY A DREAM...:

The Democrats' Woes (Charlie Cook, Oct. 8, 2002, National Journal)

In the Senate, putting aside New Jersey, the other three highly endangered Democratic seats seem to sit closer to the edge today than three of the four comparably situated Republican seats. Democratic Sens. Jean Carnahan of Missouri, Tim Johnson of South Dakota and PaulWellstone of Minnesota are all no better than 50-50; most polls show each race within two or three points one way or the other.

On the Republican side, while most polls do put freshman Sen. Tim Hutchinson of Arkansas behind by as much as 10 points, the other threemost endangered Republican seats seem slightly less endangered than are Carnahan, Johnson and Wellstone. [...]

Given that the party holding the White House has lost seats in the House in 32 out of 34 midterm elections since the end of the Civil War and Senate seats in three-quarters of them since the direct election of senators began, and that the economy is very weak and the stock market is in the toilet, it would seem almost given that Democrats should do well in this election.

If Republicans actually gain seats in the House and Senate, this will truly be a historic election, only the third time since the end of the Civil War. And it just might happen.

Charlie Cook is usually more sensible than this. It can't happen. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 8, 2002 1:46 PM