COUNTERREVOLUTION!:

A revolution crumbles: Alongside the boys of the Islamic militia, eager for martyrdom, there is another Iran - of rock bands and weblogs, teenage runaways and prostitution. Tim Judah investigates Tehran's underground (Tim Judah, October 5, 2002, The Guardian)

In the aftermath of the Islamic revolution, and following Saddam Hussein's attack on Iran in 1980, the mullahs demanded martyrs. Women were encouraged to go forth and raise children. The result was a massive baby boom but, for the mullahs, the grand scheme has gone dreadfully wrong. The statistics are stark. Two thirds of Iran's 70 million people are under 30 and - far from creating a nation of martyrs - the mullahs have created millions of angry young people who would rather check their email than die for Islam. They do not want to be beaten on the streets if their headscarf is pushed too far back, and they don't want to be beaten by the Basij, the Supreme Leader's volunteer Islamic militia, because they are out with a girl who is neither their sister nor their wife.

Their anger does not necessarily translate into political action - at least, not yet. Some of the mullahs are aware of their problem and have talked publicly about the failure of the Islamic state to engage its young. At the beginning of 2000, for example, one of them, a reformist mullah called Mohammad Ali Zam, shocked Iranians by announcing publicly that research had shown that 73% of Iranians - and 86% of students - did not say their daily prayers. Little of this more secular side of Iran is reported in the west, because of the restrictions facing both foreign and local journalists. Still, one figure that did leak out was a finding that the Ministry of Interior tried to keep secret: according to research among 16,000 people, 94% said the country was in urgent need of reform. Hossein Ghazian, the director of the polling firm Ayande, says that his research points in a similar direction - the majority believe in the present regime, but they want change; and 23% want radical change - that is to say, a revolution. As to religion, Ghazian has found "that 36% say religion should be private and in your heart, and is nothing to do with ritual", and a similar proportion think religion and state should be separated - a marked change from 10 years earlier.

What a waste. After twenty years they're going to finally realize the Shah's vision of a Westernized Iran, only this time imposed from the bottom up instead of from the top down. Let's hope every nation in the Middle East doesn't have to endure the whole futile process. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 5, 2002 8:11 AM