ACES OF BASE:

CA Voter turnout may be the worst ever: Current mark of 57.6 percent set in November 1998 general election (Steve Geissinger, 10/27/02, Tri-Valley Herald)

Though described as everything from dull to dismal, Election Day will still likely be historic -- for the lowest general election voter turnout ever in California, experts say.

"People are saying, 'I just want this thing to be over,'" said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media in Sacramento.

A new landmark low -- something below the turnout of 57.6 percent of registered voters for the November 1998 general election -- would come in the wake of a troubled election earlier this year. The March primary inspired the fewest voters to cast ballots of any primary election in California history.

There was a time when low turnout was automatically assumed to benefit Republicans, because they turned out to vote as a civic duty. But in recent years the Democrats have developed an extraordinarily effective system for turning out the Union and black vote and you'd have to say that low turnout generally benefits them now. That could be the decisive factor in races like that for the MO Senate seat--one reason that the GOP shouldn't get too giddy about its prospects. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 27, 2002 9:35 AM