A GOOD TIME TO BE A REPUBLICAN IN TEXAS:

GOP leading in top two races (WAYNE SLATER, 10/20/2002, The Dallas Morning News)

Gov. Rick Perry is favored by 50 percent of likely voters over Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez, backed by 35 percent in the latest poll
by The Dallas Morning News.

In the Senate race, Republican John Cornyn leads former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk by 10 points. [...]

"It's a good time to be a Republican running for office in Texas," said pollster Micheline Blum.

"What's happened in Texas is that almost half of all likely voters think of themselves now as Republicans," she said. "So you can't win anymore with just the Democrats and a chunk of the independents."

Part of the Democratic political blueprint is to boost turnout among minority voters with a historic ticket. Mr. Kirk would be the first black U.S. senator from the South since Reconstruction, and Mr. Sanchez would be the state's first Hispanic governor. [...]

Ms. Blum and colleague Julie Weprin said their survey suggests little evidence that the so-called dream team ticket has kindled sufficient enthusiasm to offset its lagging support among whites.

"That's obviously a real blow to Sanchez," Ms. Blum said. "He needs to be taking the overwhelming number of Hispanic votes. Plus he needs the enthusiasm of people getting out in droves to help him do well. And we don't see either one."

She said Mr. Kirk is doing far better among blacks than Hispanics.

"The problem is there isn't a black-Hispanic coalition," she said. "He's not getting anywhere near as much of the Hispanic vote as one might have expected or that he needs to get."

Mr. Kirk, like Bill Simon in California, is going to be unfairly criticized for the quality of the campaign he ran. And, again like Mr. Simon, he has had a few biffs along the way. But, just as California is too Democrat for Mr. Simon ever to have had a real shot, so Texas is just too Republican at this point for Mr. Kirk to have won. He probably did as well as anyone could have expected.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 19, 2002 2:58 PM