THE RACE IS ON:

If Election Day Were Today (Charlie Cook, Sept. 17, 2002, NationalJournal.com)

Perhaps because the number of hotly contested House races is so small, with only 44 of 435 districts in play, the importance of each individual contest has risen dramatically. With just 50 days to go before the Nov. 5 election, only a dozen House races can be said to be true toss-ups at this stage, with 32 more leaning to one party or the other. More ominously for Democrats, 219 House seats currently can be said to be leaning, likely or solidly Republican, one more than a simple majority of the House. What that effectively means is that if the election were held today, Democrats could win every seat that was leaning, likely or solidly Democratic, plus every toss-up race, and still come up two seats short of a majority.

It is not yet clear if this will be a nationalized election, where economic issues dominate, or where foreign policy issues rule. It should be immediately emphasized that the election is more than a month and a half away, and many important questions about this election remain to be determined. For example, if this election is about the economy, about bread-and-butter domestic issues, that could give Democrats the advantage they need. Democrats do not need a gale-force wind to pick up the seats necessary to control the House, but they do need a good, stiff breeze.

Nothing would be so helpful right now as some good economic news. Unfortunately this tends to be the worst time of year for the stock market. Posted by Orrin Judd at September 17, 2002 2:06 PM